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HUMANITY’S UNOFFICIAL PROGRESS REPORT

Is the apocalypse coming?

64%

The Apocalypse Meter Apocalypse loading…

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A satirical score, not a scientific prediction. Real sources. Questionable species.

Edition of November 1, 2026 · Complete edition: 8 of 8 components · Updated manually, not live · Explain this number

STILL OPERATIONALADMIN

We’ll circle back.

PLAYING GOD

Apparently, free will wasn’t enough. Add a little chaos. Try a little mercy. See what happens.

The simulator needs JavaScript. The sins are still listed in the methodology.

What’s pushing us toward the credits?

Five documented pressures, three departments we invented. Each one is labeled, because some of this is real and we are not monsters.

Editorial rubric

Adults With Access to the Button

80

Nuclear · 15% · adds 12.0

Scored on: Level 80: An explicit threat of nuclear use is reliably documented.

Department responsible: Office of Deterrence and Crossed Fingers

Arsenals, treaties and threats, scored with a published rubric.

Level 80. An explicit threat of nuclear use is reliably documented.

AP reported a written Russian warning to NATO over Kaliningrad, and quoted the Russian Embassy in Ireland saying Russia “would be ready to use all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons.” NATO confirmed receiving a written message on 30 September. Putin later spoke of “all weapons” without specifying nuclear ones. The report describes no alert change, and this is scored as a political statement, not an operational change.

Political statement. Event date 2026-09-30. Reviewed 2026-11-01. Source: Associated Press, via NBC News.

All evidence reviewed
  • Level 20: Nine states hold nuclear weapons. SIPRI estimates 12,187 warheads in January 2026, about 9,745 of them in military stockpiles. SIPRI Yearbook 2026
  • Level 40: SIPRI reports that all nine nuclear-armed states continued to modernize and enhance their arsenals in 2025, and most deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable systems. SIPRI Yearbook 2026
  • Level 60: New START, the last treaty limiting US and Russian strategic forces, expired on 5 February 2026 with no successor. SIPRI Yearbook 2026, chapter 8
  • Level 80: AP reported a written Russian warning to NATO over Kaliningrad, and quoted the Russian Embassy in Ireland saying Russia “would be ready to use all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons.” NATO confirmed receiving a written message on 30 September. Putin later spoke of “all weapons” without specifying nuclear ones. The report describes no alert change, and this is scored as a political statement, not an operational change. Associated Press, via NBC News

Data-based proxy

Earth Has Opened a Support Ticket

66

Climate · 15% · adds 9.9

Scored on: 1.32 °C above 1850 to 1900, ten-year mean, 2016 to 2025

Department responsible: Planetary Customer Care

Ten-year warming, because one hot year is not a trend.

  • 1.47 °C single-year temperature, 2025. Shown for context. Not used in the score. Copernicus C3S ERA5

Observation: 1.32 °C above 1850 to 1900, ten-year mean (2016 to 2025). Scale: 0 to 2, both editorial choices.

Editorial anchors: 0 °C is the preindustrial baseline and 2 °C is the upper policy reference in the Paris Agreement. A ten-year mean is used because a single hot year is not long-term warming. 2 °C is not the point where the world ends; it is where this game’s scale runs out.

Source: Copernicus C3S ERA5, Climate Pulse. Daily ano_91-20 averaged by calendar year, plus 0.88 °C.

Global temperature above 1850 to 1900

1940 to 2025. Latest 1.472 °C. High 1.599.

Data-based proxy

Diplomacy Is Under Maintenance

93

Conflicts · 10% · adds 9.3

Scored on: 2.98 deaths per 100,000 people, 2025

Department responsible: Bureau of Failed Summits

Organized violence deaths per 100,000 people, against the historical record.

  • 13 wars, conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths, 2025. Context only. Not used in the score. UCDP 26.1
  • 244,579 deaths in organized violence, 2025. Best estimate. UCDP revises its series with each version. UCDP 26.1

Observation: 2.98 deaths per 100,000 people (2025). Reference, frozen: UCDP 26.1 organized violence rate, 1989 to 2025, 37 observations.

Includes state-based conflict, one-sided violence against civilians and non-state conflict. Excludes indirect deaths from hunger or disease, and criminal violence. This score shows where the observation sits within the selected historical series. It does not measure the absolute size of the tragedy.

Source: UCDP 26.1 and World Bank population. Sum of bd_best (battle-related deaths) and best_fatality_estimate (one-sided and non-state violence), divided by SP.POP.TOTL.

Organized violence deaths per 100,000 people

1989 to 2025. Latest 2.977 per 100,000. High 14.574.

Data-based proxy

We Failed the Tutorial

31

Food security · 10% · adds 3.1

Scored on: 8.1% of world population undernourished, 2024

645 million (range 608 to 696 million) people undernourished, world, 2025.

A low game score is not a small problem.

Department responsible: Ministry of the Very Basics

Global undernourishment, against the historical record.

  • 645 million (range 608 to 696 million) people undernourished, world, 2025. That is 7.8% of the world. The World Bank series used for the score currently ends in 2024. SOFI 2026, via EU Knowledge4Policy summary
  • 265.7 million people in acute food crisis (IPC/CH phase 3 or above), 2025. 22.9% of the population analysed in 47 countries and territories, not of the world. The report warns that the fall from 295.8 million mainly reflects fewer countries covered. Global Report on Food Crises 2026, Figure 2.7

Observation: 8.10 % of world population undernourished (2024). Reference, frozen: FAO prevalence of undernourishment, world, 2001 to 2024, 24 observations.

Uses a global denominator and one published series. Measures chronic undernourishment, not acute crisis. This score shows where the observation sits within the selected historical series. It does not measure the absolute size of the tragedy.

Source: World Bank SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, from FAO. World aggregate (WLD), latest non-empty year.

Prevalence of undernourishment, world

2001 to 2024. Latest 8.1 %. High 13.2.

Editorial rubric

New Season. Microscopic Cast.

80

Biological · 10% · adds 8.0

Scored on: Level 80: An active Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

Department responsible: Outbreak Scheduling

Scope and official status of a documented event.

  • 9,704 confirmed Ebola cases, DR Congo, to 20 October 2026. Includes 4,687 deaths. Kenya reported 9 cases and Nigeria 1. There is no licensed Bundibugyo vaccine. WHO, 2026-DON622
  • 2 active PHEICs, October 2026. Bundibugyo Ebola and polio. A count of institutional decisions, not a severity measure. The absence of a declaration would not prove safety. WHO

Level 80. An active Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

The Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic was determined a PHEIC on 17 May 2026. Temporary recommendations were last issued on 24 August and WHO’s 23 October bulletin still lists the determination. WHO has not characterized it as a pandemic.

Official status. Event date 2026-05-17. Reviewed 2026-11-01. Source: WHO.

All evidence reviewed
  • Level 40: WHO describes sustained, high-level transmission of Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Kenya has a contained local cluster and Nigeria an imported case, so level 60 is not claimed. WHO Disease Outbreak News, 2026-DON622
  • Level 80: The Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic was determined a PHEIC on 17 May 2026. Temporary recommendations were last issued on 24 August and WHO’s 23 October bulletin still lists the determination. WHO has not characterized it as a pandemic. WHO

Fictional satire

God Is Typing…

52

Divine patience · 15% · adds 7.8

Reviewing the free-will clause.

Department responsible: Celestial Human Resources

A fictional performance review of humanity.

Fixed editorial points from catalog items. None of this happened. Most of it did, in spirit.

  • We put a subscription on a button. +12
  • We scheduled a meeting to prepare for the meeting. +10
  • Someone launched a course about launching courses. +9
  • Customer support asked us to rate the problem before solving it. +13
  • We turned relaxation into a productivity metric. +8

Fictional satire

They Came. They Saw. They Locked the Ship.

35

Alien intervention · 10% · adds 3.5

Observing with the doors locked.

Department responsible: Alien Intervention

The site visit did not go well. This scores fictional proximity to intervention, not evidence of extraterrestrial activity.

Fixed editorial points from catalog items. None of this happened. Most of it did, in spirit.

  • They tried to cancel a subscription. +12
  • They discovered 48 messaging apps and no communication. +10
  • First contact went to spam. +7
  • The landing permit requires a fax. +6

Fictional satire

The Species That Invented Wi-Fi

72

Common sense collapse · 15% · adds 10.8

Rebranded the problem as a feature.

Department responsible: Department of Obvious Questions

A running inventory of avoidable nonsense.

Fixed editorial points from catalog items. None of this happened. Most of it did, in spirit.

  • An AI writes it. Another AI summarizes it. Nobody reads it. +18
  • The refrigerator needs to accept the updated terms. +15
  • The product got worse when it got an app. +12
  • The company announced human-centered service and removed the last human. +16
  • The apology has a premium tier. +11
The calculation, unfortunately.

64% on The Apocalypse Meter, rounded from 64.4245. Data coverage: 100% of the weight, 8 of 8 components.

ComponentScoreAdds
Nuclear80.012.00
Climate65.89.88
Conflicts93.29.32
Food security31.33.13
Biological80.08.00
Divine patience52.07.80
Alien intervention35.03.50
Common sense collapse72.010.80
Total64.42

Show me the actual math.

No update. The chaos is running on the same version.

Fictional satire

Minutes from the celestial board meeting

  1. Humanity asked for an extension. The Chair noted this is the fourth extension since Tuesday.
  2. Facilities reports the horsemen have asked about parking.
  3. A motion to read the terms and conditions failed for lack of anyone who had.
  4. Next meeting moved, then moved again, in keeping with tradition.

Why does it feel like the apocalypse is coming?

There is no reliable scientific percentage showing how far along the apocalypse is. Apocalypse Loading combines documented global pressures with clearly labeled fiction to create a satirical score. Inspect the ingredients, change the assumptions, and try your hand at Playing God.

What we measure and what we invent

Sixty percent of the weight rests on five documented pressures: nuclear, climate, conflict, food and biological. The other forty percent is fiction: divine patience, alien intervention and the collapse of common sense.

What the percentage means

It is the position of an editorial game on a scale we built. It is not the probability of extinction, the fulfillment of any prophecy, or a measured fraction of the end of the world.

Why real risks do not add up to one number

A warhead count, a temperature and a case count have different units, timescales and causes. Experts assess them separately for good reason. Combining them takes editorial choices, so we show ours.

How to inspect it

Open any card for its source, or read the methodology and the full source list.

How the simulator differs

Playing God changes only your browser’s copy. The published edition stays exactly as it was.

  • The nuclear guardrails got thinner

    New START expired in February 2026 without a replacement, and SIPRI reports all nine nuclear-armed states modernizing their arsenals.

    Warhead counts are estimates. A count does not tell you the probability of use. 2026. SIPRI

  • More wars, and a higher death rate

    UCDP counted 13 wars in 2025. The rate of organized violence deaths is among the highest in its series since 1989.

    The series covers direct violence. Indirect deaths are not included. 2025. UCDP

  • A large Ebola epidemic is ongoing

    WHO reports 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths in DR Congo to 20 October 2026, with no licensed vaccine for this virus.

    WHO rated global risk low in August and says that assessment is being revised. Risk is very high in DR Congo. To 20 October 2026. WHO

3 more pressures

  • Seven of nine planetary boundaries are exceeded

    The 2026 Planetary Health Check reports seven of nine boundaries transgressed.

    Boundaries are safe operating zones. They cannot be added up into a countdown. 2026. Planetary Health Check 2026, PIK

  • AI capabilities are moving faster than the evidence

    The International AI Safety Report 2026 describes an evidence dilemma: capabilities advance quickly while evidence about risks arrives slowly.

    There is no agreed universal AI risk scale, so AI is not a scored component. February 2026. International AI Safety Report 2026

  • And the earthquakes are not, in fact, increasing

    There were 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in 2025, against a long-term expectation of about 16 a year.

    Part of why it feels like more is that we now hear about all of them. 2025. USGS

Reasons to postpone the apocalypse

Verified, annoyingly. Please do not let this affect your mood.

  • The 2025 ozone hole was the fifth smallest since 1992

    NOAA and NASA ranked it fifth, and Copernicus recorded its earliest closure since 2019.

    Years vary naturally. Full recovery is still projected decades away. 2025 season. WMO

  • The global undernourishment rate has been falling

    It fell from 8.6% in 2022 to 8.1% in 2024.

    Hundreds of millions of people remain undernourished, and the trend differs by region. 2022 to 2024. World Bank, from FAO

  • The international mpox emergency ended

    WHO’s Director-General lifted the classification after a sustained fall in cases and deaths.

    The end of a classification is not the end of the disease. 5 September 2025. WHO

2 more reasons

  • Wild polio: 4 cases in 2026 by late August

    There were 52 in all of 2025, in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    A partial year against a full one, and cases can be reported late. The emergency remains active. To 25 August 2026. WHO

  • Non-state conflict deaths hit their lowest level since 2013

    About 14,500 deaths in 2025 in fighting between armed groups without a government party.

    One of three forms of organized violence. The total rose. 2025. UCDP, Uppsala University

FAQ

Is this a scientific apocalypse probability?

No. It’s a satirical score with an inspectable recipe. The sources are real where labeled. The divine performance review is not.

Can I change the apocalypse percentage?

Yes. Playing God lets you add hypothetical events and see how our fictional scoring system responds. Please enjoy your temporary promotion.

Why is God annoyed?

This is a fictional management assessment. No divine spokesperson returned our emails.

Are aliens really coming?

Our alien department is fictional. Unexplained observations are not proof of extraterrestrial visitors.

Can the percentage go down?

Yes. This is not a prophecy. Humanity is allowed to improve.

Is this affiliated with the Doomsday Clock?

No. Apocalypse Loading is an independent satire project and interactive simulator.